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RAPPORT

Fostering Effective Energy Transition

A Fact-Based Framework to Support Decision-Making

Key findings: 

1. Over the last five years, more than 80% of countries improved their energy systems, but further effort is needed to resolve the world’s energy-related challenges.

  • Current performance and recent improvement in environmental sustainability has been the lowest among the three triangle dimensions. Particle emission levels deteriorated in more than 50% of countries, carbon intensity stayed at and energy productivity improved by 1.8% per annum, falling short of the 3% per annum threshold believed to be required to meet the Paris climate change agreement.
  • Security and access remains the area with the biggest gap between highest- and lowest-performing countries. Almost all countries without universal electricity access have seen progress. However, at the global level, the absolute number of people without access still exceeds one billion.
  • Household electricity prices have been rising in real terms since 2013 in more than one-half of countries globally, despite an overall fall in primary fuel prices. These developments increase pressures to improve the affordability of energy.

2. Countries can foster progress in three ways by: establishing favourable conditions for energy system stakeholders, targeting improvement across all three triangle dimensions, and by pursuing improvement levers with synergistic impact across the system.

  • The presence of enablers (transition readiness in the ETI) is a strong indicator of the increased performance of countries’ energy systems. The countries with the highest readiness scores are leading the performance ranking. Without these enablers in place, countries’ performance would be average at best. Since transition readiness is multi-dimensional, countries need to establish favorable conditions in all six readiness dimensions to fully capture the opportunities from the energy transition.
  • Countries that have not pursued a balanced approach to improve the energy triangle across its three imperatives showed below-average performance improvements. On the other hand, countries that managed to develop high performance levels show more balanced improvement across the three dimensions.
  • Removal of fossil fuel subsidies and the reduction of energy intensity are important improvement levers as they showed synergistic impact on other dimensions
    of the energy triangle. Countries making progress in these two dimensions showed proportionately greater improvement in the other dimensions across the energy triangle.

3. Countries follow different transition paths and need to develop country-speci c roadmaps. Comparative analysis among peers can highlight opportunities for improvement.

  • Countries with high performance and most enablers in place have led the improvement in environmental sustainability, while countries with relatively low performance or readiness narrowed the gap in security and access, and economic developmentand growth.
  • Countries are encouraged to benchmark themselves against comparable peer groups (e.g. geographies, development status, energy trade balance) to identify good practice examples and develop suitable improvement levers, applicable to their circumstances.
  • Energy importing economies showed higher transition readiness levels and bene tted more from the lower energy prices of the last ve years. Out of these countries, some of those with lower performance levels (e.g. People’s Republic of China or Kenya) established a working ecosystem of enablers, including strong regulations, infrastructure and an innovative business environment, which helped them attract investment for future improvements.
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