‘The World Upside Down’

‘Wholesale Banks and Asset Management Report’ Oliver Wyman en Morgan Stanley

We see a reversal of fortunes for Wholesale Banks and Asset Managers. The effects of Quantitative Easing (QE) and bank regulation drove a more than $100BN divergence in revenues since 2011, with Asset Managers up $65BN and Wholesale Banks down $45BN. This now looks set to go into reverse. Asset Managers face growing fee pressures whereas Wholesale Banks will benefit from shifts in policy, technology, and operating leverage. But the gulf between winning and losing firms will widen in both Asset Management and Wholesale Banking.

We expect six major drivers of value over the next three to five years:

  • Intense fee pressure for Asset Managers, triggering cost programs and consolidation
  • Re-engineering of active Asset Management, as seizing alpha opportunities becomes more critical than ever (e.g. unconstrained, private market assets, solutions)
  • Increasing capacity and revenues for the Wholesale Banks, driven by a tempering of regulation and rising rates
  • A structural shift in Wholesale Banking revenue pools, from institutional to corporate clients
  • Pressure on flow trading and research, but growth in more capital intensive activities
  • Technology driving down Wholesale Banking costs, but opening up new forms of competition
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