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RAPPORT

Cambridge Global Risk Outlook 2017

Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

The risk landscape is changing. The Cambridge Global Risk Index provides an objective, evidence-based analysis of the risk of future economic shocks for use by business managers, policy makers, and financial risk decision-makers.

The Index provides guidance on where future disruptions to revenues and economic activity are most likely to occur. It provides a framework for incorporating the frequency and severity of future shocks into resilience planning, and inputs into risk registers and formal reporting of risks to shareholders and regulators.

The Index is structured to help with the cost benefit justification of improving resilience. Policy makers can use the Index for civic continuity, economic security, and preparedness, particularly city administrations in identifying the key drivers of risk to the economic prosperity of their metropolis.

Financial services companies providing risk capital can incorporate this type of analysis into their own techniques and country threat assessments. Some risks included in the analysis are not incorporated in conventional risk management products and standard perils covered in traditional insurance. Better understanding of these risks may provide opportunities for insurers to create new product offerings and address new markets.

Emerging Risk Trends

Our analysis identifies three important emerging trends in the global risk landscape:

  • Emerging economies will shoulder an increasing proportion of risk-related economic loss as a result of both their accelerating economic growth and their increasing risk environment. Their risk environment is less stable.
  • There is a growing prominence of man-made risks
  • We see a heavy contribution from new or emerging risks, such as cyber attacks and infrastructure vulnerabilities.
    A number of the evolving risks are supra-national – they transcend the ability of any individual country to deal with the risk or contain it on their own. It is only by international collaborative efforts that these systemic connected risks can be mitigated.

A Map of the Future Risk Landscape

The Index provides a map of the risk landscape ahead. Understanding the patterns of future risk is the key to successful risk management. We provide these analytics to help businesses, policy-makers, financial services providers, insurers, and other professional risk managers gauge their planning decisions, strategies and investments. We estimate that over half of this risk can be mitigated by improvements in resilience and investment in risk management.

Heightened awareness and improved understanding of risks is the key to building resilience. The Cambridge Global Risk Index 2017 is offered as a contribution towards reducing risk for a sustainable society.

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