Growth Promise Indicators

2018 report

Welcome to KPMG’s new Growth Promise Indicators (GPI) report. Consider the 2018 edition an evolution of our annual Variables for Sustained Growth (VSG) report, which was rst developed in 2014. The name may be new, but now – as then – we are seeking to explore how individual countries can grow sustainably and fulfil their true promise.

If you’re an investor, the GPI report will help you to make more informed decisions about your long-term location decisions. For governments, it will shine a light on who is leading the pack and provide insight into how they are doing it.

For both groups, these questions are becoming more important. Today, a number of countries are confounding old notions and are turbocharging their development through smarter investments in technology or infrastructure. Meanwhile, others risk sliding back – succumbing to the temptation of populism or failing to equip future generations with skills they need to thrive in 10 or 20 years’ time.

Countries have dilemmas in deciding where to allocate scarce resources obviously. Our report shows that lower-income countries are prioritising infrastructure investment over technological. The question is whether they can afford to neglect technological change much longer as artificial intelligence and robotics start to rewrite the rules of the global economy.

The common thread here – and it’s one that stretches throughout this report – is the importance of strong and enlightened leadership, both in politics and in business. Take the issue of open trade. The GPI clearly shows the majority of countries including 13 of the G20 have become relatively less, rather than more, open to trade in the last ve years. Yet the analysis also highlights the rewards for those pursuing a more open path.

And despite suggestions that technology is today making governments mere bystanders, this report shows that those states with robust and transparent public institutions are generally those which still possess the greatest potential. The GPI shows how countries like Rwanda, Senegal and Bhutan are putting themselves on the fast track by getting the basics right.

I hope the report provides fresh insights, proves to be a useful aid in your decision making and sparks some healthy debate!

Best wishes,

Bill Michael

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