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RAPPORT

Global insurance trends analysis 2017

Upside potential, sideway risks

Recent rebound of global growth has been driven by improving prospects in the US and China (mainland), a gradual rise in employment levels and a recovery in the commodity markets (during last three out of four quarters).

?US GDP grew at its fastest pace since 1Q15 (3.0% in 2Q17 and 1.2% in 1Q17) driven by rising employment, accelerating wage growth and improved business investments.

?The EU is forecasted to post its highest growth (FY17e: 2.1%) since the financial crisis, driven by a rising manufacturing output and reducing unemployment levels.

?Japan too expanded faster than expected in 2Q17, as investment and household consumption scenario improved.

?However, UK’s economy slowed in 1H17 as rising inflation affected household spending power, which along with Brexit-related risks may impact growth in 2017-2018. The UK was also among the few markets which saw a fall in employment.

Improved economic growth scenario and more engaged labor market will have a major impact on the overall income levels both at commercial and personal levels. While, a gradual rise in demand for insurance can be expected, multiple threats remain in the form of risks from Brexit, rising debt levels for several key economies (e.g., US, Greece, Italy and Spain), possible reversal of the extended bull run seen in global equity markets since 2009 (third longest ever) and potential escalation of tension in East Asia.

 

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